Liz Truss was hyped when she came in as the prime minister of the United Kingdom; however, at the time, I felt she was given a baton for a race that requires a strategic approach, and not one with too many promises. Politicians will always make promises, but it is the strategy to achieve these promises that matters. I would have wished the Nigerian political landscape is as virile as the U.K.’s, where you can respect your dignity as a leader and resign when a public opinion poll shows a vote of no confidence in an administration. Perhaps because she was taking over from Boris Johnson, who had belligerently engaged the parliament to achieve his objectives, she thought to set a very high standard for herself, not minding the hoops she has to jump through. One thing is clear about the British political administration, and that is, a prime minister had better be confident of the feasibility of their economic, political and foreign policy plans before jumpstarting an administration. Likewise, the British parliament is one of the most resistant parliaments in the world and it takes a leader who understands the art of lobbying, push-back, and active engagement to win the game. I doubt Liz Truss had any of these attributes.
Truss’s economic plan was to reduce the level of taxes in the United Kingdom, but that would have to come at a cost, which had to be funded by the government. It would cost the government around £80 billion of taxpayers’ money, which sounds counterintuitive. Imagine cutting taxes and financing the same cut with taxes; it does not make much sense. In my view, Truss failed to understand that cutting taxes, when an economy is not neck-deep in recession will not spur any economic growth. Instead, this will overheat the economy, push inflation rates higher, create a disincentive to work, and reduce aggregate supply eventually. If Truss wanted to stimulate aggregate demand, she could have worked on a plan for increased wage incentives with British companies. This way, her plan would have geared both aggregate demand and supply concurrently.
Truss hinted at taking the United Kingdom back to the European Union and restoring all former privileges to citizens of other European countries. The plan to undo Brexit was dead on arrival. Brexit was a long fight between the prime minister, the parliament, the European Union, and the people of Britain. In my view, the British government overacted on opinion polls to justify Brexit; however, the opinion polls did not show a major skew, which means the proportion of those who voted for Brexit was not significantly far off compared to those who voted otherwise. The truth is that globalization is so indispensable that pulling off a string like Brexit is a hornet nest. I doubt the EU will consider reversing Brexit, and even if they would, this would come with a lot of renegotiation that would favour the EU.
What exactly is the lesson for Nigerian electorates? The campaign season has started and the promises will be ubiquitous. I dare say that 90% of these promises will be unrealistic and unachievable. For instance, promises like 24-hour electricity supply, more than 5% annual real GDP growth, appreciating the USD/NGN to 450 levels, external debt forgiveness, and nationwide industrial revolution are going to be mere say. The Nigerian electorate would do better to engage the candidates on the ‘how’ and not the ‘what’. If history is anything to go by, asking how the candidates will achieve their plans and evaluating these strategies will help make an informed decision about who to vote for. In addition, the Nigerian electorate should look beyond voting for the right president. In my view, having sound and intelligent legislators is better than even voting for the right president because they are the first line of defense for all national policies. Finally, the Nigerian electorate must understand that the amount of economic, political, and social chaos in the country is enormous and an administration cannot undo all of it in four years. Therefore, electing the right candidate is a good start, but unless the electorate is patient and understanding, the elected president will still be tagged a failure.
Written by Michael Ogunremi
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