The proposed U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal is more than just an economic agreement—it is a strategic move in a high-stakes geopolitical contest. It is a contest between an expression of dominance and a resolve to signal strength in Ukraine’s sovereignty. The deal, aimed at harnessing Ukraine’s vast mineral wealth, is deeply intertwined with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the West’s critical mineral needs, NATO’s role in securing Europe, and the growing rift between President Volodymyr Zelensky and former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Ukraine is home to significant reserves of rare earth elements, lithium, titanium, and graphite—resources that are essential for high-tech industries, electric vehicles, and defense manufacturing. These minerals have become a crucial asset as global demand surges, particularly in Western economies striving to reduce dependence on China for critical supplies. With the stretched tech war between the U.S. and China, the U.S. is out to broaden its ‘pipeline’ of rare earth materials to maintain dominance in both technology and production of sophisticated military artefacts. Ukraine’s mineral-rich regions, however, are under threat from Russian forces. Some of the most resource-abundant areas, such as those in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia, have either been occupied or are in close proximity to the warfront. This makes mineral extraction a security-sensitive issue, one that requires robust international backing and investment. Russia’s poise is to maintain strongholds of these regions as show of strength, to weaken Ukraine’s ability to amplify their military prowess and perhaps, sell the minerals from this region through black market negotiations to raise money to continue funding the war.
The United States has been pushing to secure alternative sources of rare earth elements and other critical minerals to reduce reliance on China, which dominates global production. Washington has identified Ukraine as a key partner in its broader strategy to diversify supply chains. In 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy designated certain Ukrainian minerals as “strategically significant,” paving the way for deeper cooperation. Conspiracy theorist would argue that this could be a reason why the war lasted this long. As part of the proposed deal, U.S. companies would receive a stake in Ukraine’s mineral sector in exchange for investment in extraction and processing facilities. This would enable Ukraine to develop its domestic mining industry while ensuring the U.S. has access to crucial raw materials. The contention, however, in the public space, is that this agreement could represent a repayment of Ukraine’s ‘debt’ to the U.S. despite the former’s challenge that the funds received are not loans, but aids for the war.
The European Union, heavily reliant on imports for critical minerals, has been actively supporting Ukraine’s economic integration into the West. Brussels has pledged billions in reconstruction aid, with a particular focus on infrastructure and resource development. The EU is also discussing a separate minerals agreement with Kyiv to secure supplies for its green energy and defense sectors. Meanwhile, Britain has ramped up military and economic support for Ukraine. The UK has committed additional aid packages and has been instrumental in rallying Western allies to provide long-term assistance. London is also working on a trilateral security and trade pact with Ukraine and Poland, which could serve as a framework for future mineral cooperation. It is not clear if the interest from the EU would pose a threat to the proposed mineral deal with the U.S.
Russia has a vested interest in preventing Ukraine from leveraging its mineral resources to strengthen its economy and defense capabilities. Moscow has targeted industrial sites and infrastructure in Ukraine, including those related to mining and energy production. Beyond military tactics, Russia has sought to disrupt Western investments in Ukraine’s resource sector through disinformation campaigns and diplomatic pressure. If Ukraine successfully partners with the U.S. and Europe on critical minerals, it could undermine Russia’s leverage over global commodity markets. However, given the clandestine details on the agreement, it is likely that the proposed mineral deal has some benefits to Russia.
NATO’s involvement in Ukraine’s defense indirectly ties into the mineral deal. Western investment in Ukraine’s mining sector would require security guarantees, particularly as Russia continues targeting industrial infrastructure. Some analysts argue that NATO’s increasing military assistance—including advanced air defenses and intelligence-sharing—will be crucial in safeguarding strategic sites from Russian attacks.
The proposed minerals agreement was set to be finalized during a February 2025 meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Trump. However, the negotiations collapsed when Trump, citing concerns about U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, refused to provide additional security guarantees to Ukraine. He also accused Zelensky of being “too demanding” and suggested that Ukraine should negotiate directly with Russia—a position that infuriated Kyiv. Zelensky, in turn, criticized Trump’s stance as “a betrayal of Ukraine’s struggle for sovereignty.” The heated exchange led to the Ukrainian delegation walking out of the meeting, putting the mineral deal—and broader U.S.-Ukraine relations—into uncertainty.
The U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal represents a convergence of economic ambition and geopolitical rivalry. While the agreement holds immense potential for Ukraine’s reconstruction and Western resource security, its future remains uncertain amid war, political tensions, and shifting international alliances. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Ukraine can secure the necessary partnerships to develop its mineral wealth and withstand Russian aggression. Our view is that the war may be far from over unless Zelensky can broker a deal which has a net benefit to Ukraine as opposed to Russia and the U.S., which is not a near possibility.
Written by Michael Ogunremi with great help from artificial intelligence technologies
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